| History and Motivations: | | | | by the release of greenhouse gases from fossil |
| It has long been known that greenhouse gases | | | | fuel burning. |
| contribute to global warming. In 1827, | | | | However, greenhouse gases are not the only |
| Jean-Baptiste Fourier suggested that greenhouse | | | | influence on temperature, there are other man |
| gases kept the earth warmer, whilst in 1938 an | | | | made and natural causes at work, some which |
| Engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar predicted that | | | | cause cooling as well as heating, and to determine |
| doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide from | | | | the precise effect of each, these need be |
| fossil fuel burning would lead to a global increase | | | | isolated. To do this requires the use of more |
| of 2 °C, with the poles warming more. This was | | | | detailed models that have been produced |
| a remarkable prediction, since it is exactly on | | | | compared and scrutinised by some of the world's |
| course to what we observe today! Calendar's | | | | finest climate scientists. |
| predictions were later confirmed by several | | | | Climate models combine all this data together and |
| independent but more detailed studies in the | | | | confirm the common sense notion based on |
| 1970s, including one by an elite group of | | | | temperature trends and satellite measurements |
| ex-military physicist's dubbed the 'Jason's'. By the | | | | that greenhouse gases are mainly responsible for |
| 1990s professional climate scientists armed with | | | | the current surge in global warming and will |
| an extensive range of measurements and | | | | continue to cause substantial further increases |
| calculations had removed all reasonable doubt that | | | | unless they are substantially reduced. However, |
| human activity was causing global warming. Even | | | | although the basics behind global warming are |
| scientists in the oil industry agreed with them. | | | | firmly established and is well supported by |
| So only as the evidence became undeniable did | | | | observations, science of this type always throws |
| the fossil fuel businesses realise they might have | | | | up odd anomalies. This provides opportunities for |
| confront the growing political pressure to reduce | | | | Deniers to misrepresent and undermine the |
| global warming. As a consequence, they employed | | | | conclusions reached by the substantial majority of |
| a host of public relations experts, many who had | | | | scientists on what must be the most studied and |
| successfully delayed regulations against the | | | | scrutinised phenomenon in mankind's history. |
| tobacco industry, to weave a web of | | | | The Implications: |
| misinformation using a variety of unscrupulous | | | | Global warming Denierism unlike other lunatic |
| media and various 'junk science' websites. Their | | | | conspiracy theories such as the 'faked moon |
| methods were not based on physical science but | | | | landing' would be amusing if it wasn't so |
| psychology by targeting uneducated and | | | | dangerous, irresponsible and selfish if not down |
| scientifically illiterate people using tried and tested | | | | right criminal. This is something that cannot be |
| methods of persuasion. This included peer | | | | easily reversed. Once the Arctic sea ice melts in |
| pressure, misrepresentation, over-simplistic | | | | summer, the sunlight is absorbed onto the darker |
| arguments, reiteration of falsehoods, attacks on | | | | surface of the water, this warms the surface |
| individuals and groups, and claimed threats on | | | | further. Also when the land permafrost melts, |
| personal liberty and wealth. | | | | masses of the potent greenhouse gas methane |
| The main object was not to win, but provide the | | | | will be released. Both these lead to what climate |
| impression of an informed 'debate' and to cast | | | | scientists call a positive feedback effect, a rapid |
| 'sufficient doubt' on climate science by spreading | | | | increase in global temperature which cannot be |
| confusion and uncertainty. This would allow these | | | | subsequently controlled by reducing greenhouse |
| businesses to fight a delaying action to avoid | | | | gases. In addition to the reduction in sea ice area |
| regulation and thereby impose an enormous cost | | | | in recent years there has been substantial thinning |
| to future society. This highly co-ordinated | | | | of the ice, and there was probably less volume of |
| campaign has lately been supplemented by | | | | ice in September 2009 than in any previous year |
| attacks on the climate scientists themselves using | | | | in recorded history. In fact the Arctic sea ice is on |
| misleading cherry picked extracts from stolen | | | | course for disappearing completely within a few |
| Emails attempting to implicate them in fraud. Yet | | | | decades during the summer months. |
| what a close examination of these documents | | | | Be aware that the information from the |
| reveal is a genuine but frustrated profession who | | | | Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change |
| are constantly being misquoted, misrepresented | | | | (IPCC) will usually be out of date by the time it is |
| and attacked by media savvy and politically | | | | published, and it is always conservatively written |
| motivated groups. | | | | due to political pressure. In the last report they |
| Whilst more than 97% of scientists who are | | | | had to tone down statements about climate |
| active publishers in the field of climate change | | | | feedback effects that should have been |
| accept the reality of AGW (anthropogenic or | | | | emphasised. This is itself worrying since the worst |
| human induced global warming), a very small | | | | case scenarios are by far the most costly and |
| number of climate scientists and non-specialists | | | | disruptive and should be entered into the overall |
| lured by money from the fossil fuel lobby have | | | | cost benefit equation. It is akin to your insurance |
| been successfully recruited into the Climate Denial | | | | company not allowing for the possibility of your |
| camp. Their names often appear in petitions | | | | house burning down because it is unlikely to |
| mixed with fake identities and even the | | | | happen! No wonder the IPCC have been accused |
| decreased, to make it appear as if there is a | | | | of corruption for not being alarmist enough! It |
| substantial proportion of scientists which oppose | | | | seems they are stuck between a 'Rock and Hard |
| the AGW consensus. | | | | Place'. |
| The Scientific Reality: | | | | The US military provide a useful independent view |
| AGW isn't just a theory predicted by models, this | | | | on global warming and are far less reticent about |
| effect can be experimentally observed in the | | | | these issues. In their report 'National Security and |
| laboratory and a large number of sensors and | | | | the threat of Climate Change', they include a |
| instruments rely on the same principles to | | | | section on 'abrupt climate change' not addressed |
| function. Moreover, satellites have measured a | | | | by the IPCC scenarios which include the possibility |
| significant decrease in outgoing radiation at the | | | | of the rapid increase of sea level due to the |
| wavelength bands associated with the main | | | | break-up of glaciers caused by these feedback |
| greenhouse gases as their concentrations have | | | | effects. |
| increased. This provides direct experimental | | | | Based on all this evidence, one might think any |
| evidence of the greenhouse effect in the | | | | Climate Denier would have to be very sure |
| atmosphere and removes any doubt that the | | | | before challenging the established view, yet they |
| increase in greenhouse gases MUST be having | | | | resort to a variety of unscrupulous techniques |
| some effect. | | | | ranging from distortion to outright lies. This |
| A large number of studies using a variety of | | | | demonstrates either their naivety or callousness |
| direct and proxy measurements of historical | | | | of their ideology. |
| temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations | | | | Unless rapid action is taken to circumvent the |
| further support AGW. Combining these tell us that | | | | onset of irreversible warming it will be impossible |
| the present world climate has probably never | | | | to stop the large-scale loss of habitat and |
| been warmer over the last one to two thousand | | | | large-scale land loss resulting in human migration, |
| years than at present and possibly for as long as | | | | substantial economic cost and political turmoil in |
| one hundred thousand years. More importantly it | | | | the long term. In view of the need to find |
| shows that there has been an unprecedented | | | | alternative energy sources as well, the argument |
| warming over the last hundred years and in | | | | for concerted action to prevent global warming is |
| particular the last thirty. The probability that this | | | | indisputable. |
| change has occurred naturally just as we have | | | | The common myths and answers to global |
| released vast quantities of greenhouse gases into | | | | warming questions are widely available from |
| the atmosphere is very unlikely even if we ignore | | | | reputable sources but are simply ignored by |
| the more direct evidence from satellites and | | | | climate Deniers because their purpose is not to |
| calculations. As all other reasonable influences have | | | | inform but confuse and mislead. Don't be swindled |
| been extensively studied and discounted, we can | | | | by them or allow their own ignorance or selfish |
| be assured beyond reasonable doubt that the | | | | motives destroy opportunities for future |
| current bout of global warming is mainly caused | | | | generations. |